Jim Rogers on U.S. Dollar

Talking to Steve Forbes at Forbes.com, Jim Rogers weighed in on the U.S. dollar and why he's holding it at this time, as well as why he might even acquire more of the greenback sometime soon.

It's interesting to listen to Jim Rogers chat up the U.S. dollar, as over the long term he has called it a "flawed" currency in the past, and continues to believe that to be the case.

Even so, he is invested in the dollar, and has been since around early 2011.

When asked if the reasoning behind investing in the U.S. dollar was because it's in a "bear market rally?," Rogers said this:

It’s a bear market rally, yes, in my view. Although when I walk out of here, I may buy more. No, I don’t see it as anything more than a bear market rally. But I own several currencies around the world. There may be a time ... in the foreseeable future, when all of us are going to be getting rid of our paper money, because it’s being debased all over the world. One reason I own the dollar is because everybody’s panicked about the debasement of these other currencies. Paper money is suspect.

Also being an expert on gold, Rogers knows we're in a gold correction at this time, and expects it to drop more before recovering to continue its upward price run.

That means for a season the U.S. dollar will continue to flourish, as it has little in the way of competitors in the short term, making it the preferred place of safety for investors, as the euro continues to plunge in value based upon the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

Jim Rogers Sees More Currency Turmoil

In an interview with CNBC today, billionaire commodity bull and expert Jim Rogers said he sees continual turmoil in the currency markets, although in the short term he has positions in U.S. dollars, renminbi and euros.

This is the result of the horrendous decisions of the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world to continue to "stimulate" the economy with money created out of thin air, which is extremely disruptive to the market over time.

Rogers says he sees the renminbi possibly tripling over the next ten to twenty years. He said, "I own the renminbi. Every time I can, I buy more renminbi. I expect the renminbi to double or triple in the next decade or two." He did say he doesn't have a position in the British pound at this time. Rogers added he owns no U.S. stocks either.

As for his positions in gold, silver and other precious metals, Rogers continues to say he won't be selling any of those. "The way to protect yourself at a time like that, historically anyway, has been to own real assets. Those are my longs, and currencies," said Rogers.

Rogers recommends for investors to monitor the currencies of the world. When quantitative easy results in increasing currency turmoil, he says that's the time to buy commodities.

He concludes that as the near the latter part of this decade it's doubtful very many investors will hold paper money, as it's increasingly falling out of favor as debasement pushes the value down.

Jim Rogers: Bond Bubble Burst

Basing his assertion upon unsustainable borrowing, Jim Rogers said that the next bubble to burst will be the U.S. government bond market. Rogers added in a recent interview that equities are sure to experience correction as well, after six months of going straight up.

"The next bubble that I see developing is in the United States government bond market. It is inconceivable to me that anybody would lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years in U.S. dollars at 3 to 6 percent interest rate," he said.

"So, somewhere along the line, this bubble is going to pop. If any of you own bonds, I'd be terribly worried, I would think about getting out of the bond."

As far as equities, while Rogers expects a correction, he isn't selling equities short, and the market could possibly continue going up. His idea is it's a probability that the market could go through a period of correction.

Rogers continues to be bullish on commodities, and he favors oil, precious metals and agriculture at this time.

Jim Rogers: Dollar May Rally

While Jim Rogers has no faith in the U.S. dollar in the long term, and expects it to be replaced some time as the world's reserve currency, at the same time he's holding on to his dollars at this time because everyone understands the weakness and poor future outlook of the dollar, and have priced it into it, and so that could set things up for a rally, that while not sustainable, could make some money for investors fairly quickly.

So Jim Rogers is holding his U.S. dollars in order to offload his dollar holdings if and when a rally starts.

Rogers added that the bull market in U.S. bonds is winding down, and equities will go nowhere overall over the next 10 years or so, and will largely move sideways.

Jim Rogers: Inflation Going Higher

U.S. Dollar Inflation

In a recent interview, Jim Rogers said that the U.S. government is lying about inflation, and that the current rate is probably more around six to seven percent, in contrast to what is being asserted.

Rogers simply points to the obvious, that when you go out shopping, the prices are definitely higher, and obviously that can't be spun by the government.

The best play going forward, according to Jim Rogers is to invest in gold and commodities, as raw materials will outperform other assets in the future.

U.S. Dollar Inflation

Jim Rogers: Dollar Collapse Long-term

Most people that understand the cause and effect of the disastrous policies of the Obama administration and how it will continue to damage the U.S. dollar, are rightly very pessimistic about its long term future.

But because people run in packs and follow the crowd, and most at this time see the U.S. dollar as a disaster, over the short term it wouldn't be a surprise to see it rally, and Jim Rogers concurs with that assessment, saying many investors have sold the dollar short, so that could result in a short term rally, which while not being a true measure of the U.S. dollar strength, would benefit those on the right side of the trade.

Even so, over the long term Jim Rogers continues to believe the U.S. dollar will remain a disaster and will continue to collapse.

Long term there is no doubt about the U.S. dollar continuing to lose its value. But there will be times when the dollar will temporarily shoot up in response to the ongoing negative feeling toward it, so it's something to keep in mind when making your plays on the dollar.

Jim Rogers Selling U.S. Dollars

Jim Rogers has never been one to shy away from stating his mind, and in his chosen field of commodities, he is right far more than he is wrong, and with the U.S. dollar, he has been warning for years that people need to divest of it and put their money in other currencies and investments.

Rogers stated in at the China International Financial Services Conference (CIFSC) last week in Guangzhou that he is winding down his position in the U.S. dollar, and will sell all of U.S dollars before he's through.

Citing the non-stop growth of debt by the U.S. government from administration to administrations, Rogers has asserted for some time that it's a flawed currency, which it is.

Radically and truthfully, Rogers has said the "story of the United States is over. A new story belongs to China.”

Rogers also stated that he no longer has an interest in investing in U.S. Treasury bonds, “because the government is constantly printing more banknotes.”

This means that the inflationary pressures about to hit us would cause an investment in U.S. Treasuries to lose value, even if returns move up some. Even so, Rogers said more than likely bond prices will rise significantly from where they are today, but he will focus on raw materials and companies that do business with a "real economy."

Printing Dollars: Commodities and Inflation

Even if the economic crisis hadn't hit and the U.S. government printed an outrageous amount of dollars, prices of commodities would have still went up, but add that to the eventual demand from the emerging middle classes in China and the rest of the BRIC countries, and you can see the commodity bull market will pick up where it left off, and even go further out than it would have without the temporary setback from the economy.

Jim Rogers talking recently said historically, whenever governments print money commodities will always rise in price, and that will be the consequences of an out of control Federal Reserve, probably far more than it would have been based on supply and demand for raw materials on their own.

The U.S. dollar will get crushed by these circumstances, and ultimately, could end up collapsing under the weight of trillions of new pieces of paper printed because the Federal Reserve refused to let the free market clean itself out, and had to interfere in attempts to garner favor and reinforce its image as a rescuer in the minds of the American people.

While that backfired and brought them out into the open for the first time since their unfortunate creation in 1913, we'll have to pay for the actions of the FED for a long time, as will our children and grandchildren.

Jim Rogers | U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble

Jim Rogers agrees with Peter Schiff that buying or investing in long term or 30 year government Treasury bonds will be a disaster, and investors should watch them in order to short them when the government stops interceding and artificially propping them up by buying them.

Investement expert Jim Rogers gave a scathing rebuke to clueless Obama Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and his ideas in relationship to overhauling the bailout of the financial system in the U.S. Rogers in an interview on CNBC said Geithner, who was in charge of the NY Federal Reserve, was wrong for 15 years in a row, and continues to be wrong now. He adds that the Obama plan via Geithner will cause U.S. debt to surge even higher, and is creating an even worse scenario by the same people who didn't identify the crisis coming that we're in. Rogers concludes that Geithner has no idea what he's doing.

Consequently, similar to the insight concerning U.S. debt as Peter Schiff and the
Treasury bond market bubble bursting, Rogers said he has been shorting bonds, although he was ambushed by the Feds when they declared they were going to be buying Treasury bonds, causing Rogers to have to pay out when the Treasury bonds ended up going artificially higher. Just because the government is buying up bonds doesn't mean any of us should buy government bonds, and we shouldn't. Investing in U.S. Treasury bonds for the long term at this time is one of the poorest investment idea out there now.

Rogers added that he is still watching the long term Treasury bond market, and plans on shorting it again, as the amount of debt the U.S. is issuing and the huge amount of money being printed makes inflation almost a certainty. It will also push down the value of the U.S. dollar, making government bonds a risky financial instrument going forward. Another factor making the bond bubble being burst a reality is the low interest rate policy of central banks, which will deflate of cause the bubble to burst.

When the Federal Reserve announced they were going to buy up long term U.S. Treasury bonds, speculators zoomed into the market to buy them up, causing them to hold in value, when in fact they should have been dropping in value. That has added to the bubble being ready to burst, as who's going to be stupid enough to buy Treasury bonds when the government is holding them. They're going to overall get stuck with them, and then what will they do?

Jim Rogers has said in the past he's one of the worst market timers, and doesn't attempt to time the market, and in relationship to bonds said he doesn't know when he'll short long term Treasury bonds again, as it could be sometime this quarter or maybe not till next year.

Government bond prices and bond yields are worthless and meaningless at this time, especially with the 30 year Treasury bond. The only ones buying those bonds are the clueless or the speculators. Long term bonds are dead in the water, and we need to know that before thinking of putting our money down to buy government bonds.

Some people unbelievably think buying bonds is a safe bet at this time, and they'll learn the hard way that they aren't if they go that route. Forced liquidation has been one of the artificial props keeping bonds floating, as well as the U.S. dollar for a short time. That seems to be winding down now, and gold is looking to be the best safety hedge and protection against inflation like it usually is. Forced liquidation has kept gold from performing in its usual manner, but is now starting to act and move like it usually does in difficult economic times.

On a little bit of a different note for Jim Rogers, he started up the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index fund recently in order to take advantage of the enormous upside potential of China. The China fund measures the consumption of agricultural products by the Chinese, and floats or moves in conjunction with that. The growing middle class in China guarantees that once economic times start to recover, they'll be ready to resume their consumption habits which should make the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index a good place to put your money for those looking at the long term.

Commenting on Central- and Eastern-Europe, Rogers also said he's not going to put a dime into those areas, as the economic conditions are bad, and they're probably going to get worse before getting better. Currency rates in Eastern Europe especially have fallen since the beginning of 2009.

The key reason Jim Rogers asserts for buying commodities is the inevitable increase in inflation resulting from the misguided government bailout plans. Commodities will resume their bull run and become hot again and extend out longer than he expected because of the temporary lull in buying by consumers and governments.

Back to investing, or rather, not investing in government bonds - specifically the 30 year Treasury bond - Jim Rogers, as I said, is watching the bond market for opportunities to short it. He's also looking at equities in the U.S. the same way, as he's shorting a number of bellwhether companies like IBM, JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, among others. Anything connected to the U.S. dollar, which we should all be moving out of, is looked upon as week, and not something to put our investment money into. General Electric has plunged in value by 65 percent from last year at the same time. Most of the reasoning behind this is the horrid government economic bailout plan which will prolong and deepen the economic conditions.

US Dollar: Imminent Collapse?

The forces that have allowed the US dollar to remain strong seem to be coming to an end, and it could be any time that it collapses under the weight of its inherent weakness.

A number of dollar experts, including Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers, agree with the sentiment that the US currency has nowhere to go but down.

Forced liquidation and deleveraging have kept the currency artificially high, but now those positions are unwinding, and so they won't prop up the US dollar any longer.

This will have a significant impact on dollar related investment vehicles like US Treasuries and bonds.

With the Federal Reserve running the money printing presses non stop to pay off its promises, there's nowhere for the US currency to go but down. Inflation is just around the corner, and it's a matter of when, not if, it comes.

Commodities have already started to rise, especially the metals, as gold and silver enjoyed a big jump recently, and that will continue throughout 2009. Some think platinum prices will also rise in 2009, even though the demand from the auto industry has slowed.

As far as the future of the US dollar, it's going to plummet in value in the near term for sure, while some are even beginning to think the unthinkable, that there will emerge an alternative currency the world favors, just as the pound was dropped for the US dollar long ago.

China is even beginning to experiment internally with using its own currency for transactions within its more successful economic regions, rather than the US dollar. We know the reason that experiment is going on, as the China currency could sometime emerge as the favorite to use in global transactions.

Any investment connected to the US dollar will suffer going ahead, and the dollar will not continue to retain its strength or go up over the long term. It will of course have its small seasons of upward movement, but overall the chart will go down.

This will get even worse because of the US government interfering in the free market and bailing out tons of poorly managed companies and sectors, all in the name that they're "too big to fail." Too bad, as the economy always cleans and flushes out the poorly run companies and emerges stronger than in the past.

That won't happen now as taxpayer money will be used to support the badly run companies and allow them to last in the face of the quality companies that would have taken over the bad.

In the short run, the US dollar will remain the currency of choice, but I don't see how going ahead, and the failed big government policies that are destroying the dollar, will allow the currency to remain as its been. It won't happen right away, but it will happen unless we get people in the government that understand monetary policy.

The future of the US dollar is bleak, and it will buy less and less going forward.

For the Treasury bond, the reason it's in a bubble and will collapse, is nations are starting to cut back on buying it, and speculators have entered the market giving it the illusion of strength. In reality, the US government will be the final holder of the bonds, and nobody will be there to buy them. Then what will they do?

The US dollar is heading for a fall, get out of them while you still can.

Jim Rogers "America is out of control" demise of the dollar

Jim Rogers: 'Get out of U.S. dollars' (12.15.08)

Jim Rogers: Most Large U.S. Banks Totally Bankrupt

Commenting on the health of U.S. banks, billionaire investor Jim Rogers said that most large banks in the U.S. are "totally bankrupt," and the attempt to fix them by the government is completely misguided.

Rogers said that the implementation of the $700 billion bailout does nothing to really fix the problem, it only rewards the poorly managed firms and keeps them in business while they should be allowed to fail.

For example, the bailout doesn't do anything to tackle the problem of how banks take care of their balance sheets; one of the key negative behaviors that poorly run banks practice.

All that the government is doing is rewarding the terrible management of these banks with an extended life, when in reality they need to be left to fail so the banks that are run well can either take them over or win their customers.

"What is outrageous economically and is outrageous morally is that normally in times like this, people who are competent and who saw it coming and who kept their powder dry go and take over the assets from the incompetent," said Rogers. "What's happening this time is that the government is taking the assets from the competent people and giving them to the incompetent people and saying, now you can compete with the competent people. It is horrible economics."

With America now taking similar steps that led Japan to years of economic stagnation, Rogers also believes that will probably be the economic fate of America as well.

What happened with Japan is they also wouldn't allow their large financial institutions to fail, and now that President-elect Obama is asserting his economic idea is to focus on building up national infrastructure, it'll probably make it worse, as that's also the strategy Japan used to work itself out of a financial crisis they've never recovered from.

I remember Hillary Clinton mocking John McCain for saying at one time that he would do nothing to fix the economy. That is truly the role the government should play, yet that are in a stage of bailout addiction, and they can't keep away from attempting to gain political favor by passing around the taxpayers money.

As Rogers correctly asserts, the current actions will probably end up with America weakening for a long time into the future. All this because politicians can't admit there is nothing to do but ride this problem out.

History has shown that if what is called the Great Depression in America would have been left to itself, it only would have been a very short, temporary pain that would have been taken care of in a relatively short time, as previous recessions had proven.

That's the kind of courage we need today, to have polticians leave it alone and acknowledge they aren't a factor when it comes to the free market. Very few are willing to walk that wise path. The result will be Americans paying for it for years into the future.

Jim Rogers TV: Talks Future of U.S. Dollar

U.S. Dollar in Strongest Showing Against Euro in 20 Months

The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, as it had its best showing against the euro in 20 months. Much of this is generated from the possibility of a second financial rescue package by the U.S. government, along with talk of a second stimulus package as well.

Commodity prices of responded by continuing to plunge in the short term as the dollar-denominated raw materials continue to struggle, even though underlying fundamentals haven't changed.

Fear will keep this trend going for a time, but as Jim Rogers says, we're now in a "forced liquidation" stage for commodities, but once liquidity comes back to the market, we'll see commodity prices go up again, as demand has only slowed down, but the commodity bull market will now be longer than originally expected because of the financial crisis.

In the short run we'll see the commodity market slow in growth as countries cut back on or put off projects. In the long term we'll see things return to where they've been concerning commodities. We will also see the dollar weaken significantly again in response to the ill-advised bailout that will eventually pummel the dollar and increase inflation from pouring more greenbacks into the economy.