Basing his assertion upon unsustainable borrowing, Jim Rogers said that the next bubble to burst will be the U.S. government bond market. Rogers added in a recent interview that equities are sure to experience correction as well, after six months of going straight up.
"The next bubble that I see developing is in the United States government bond market. It is inconceivable to me that anybody would lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years in U.S. dollars at 3 to 6 percent interest rate," he said.
"So, somewhere along the line, this bubble is going to pop. If any of you own bonds, I'd be terribly worried, I would think about getting out of the bond."
As far as equities, while Rogers expects a correction, he isn't selling equities short, and the market could possibly continue going up. His idea is it's a probability that the market could go through a period of correction.
Rogers continues to be bullish on commodities, and he favors oil, precious metals and agriculture at this time.
Showing posts with label Bond Collapse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bond Collapse. Show all posts
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Dollar Plunges on Inflation Fears
Weakening Dollar
The U.S. dollar plunged against the Euro, pound, and numerous other currencies today, as renewed concerns about inflation drove up the prices of commodities, with many investors adding raw materials like soybeans, copper and oil to their portfolios.
Investors fled government bonds and the dollar looking for a hedge against inflation, as many are expecting the outrageous spending of the Obama administration to devastate the greenback, bringing enormous inflation for the years ahead.
"A falling dollar is viewed as inflationary," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago. "The best inflationary hedge is typically to increase one's exposure to commodities."
Another positive thing for foreign investors is the weakening dollar allows them to buy the dollar-denominated commodities at bargain prices as their currencies strengthen against the U.S. dollar.
While the weather looks like it's cooperating with grains in the U.S., that won't matter for some, as while supply is increasing with wheat, for example, global demand is falling, which has caused wheat future prices to drop over the last couple of months, while being down by 33 percent from last year.
Along with gold, silver, oil and gas, many other precious metals also increased in value, including copper, aluminum and platinum. Heating oil also rose to $1.8713 a gallon.
Among the metals, copper continues to be a huge winner, as it has closed at a 10-month high, gaining 4.4 percent, much of that coming from increased demand from China, whose manufacturing sector has started to rebound a little, promising potentially even more demand.
Some are trying to twist this into some type of recovery, but in general, it's not huge demand driving these prices up, but the expected inflation coming from the weakening U.S. dollar; that, more than anything, will continue to spur foreign investment in commodities which is a bargain for them.
Weakening Dollar
The U.S. dollar plunged against the Euro, pound, and numerous other currencies today, as renewed concerns about inflation drove up the prices of commodities, with many investors adding raw materials like soybeans, copper and oil to their portfolios.
Investors fled government bonds and the dollar looking for a hedge against inflation, as many are expecting the outrageous spending of the Obama administration to devastate the greenback, bringing enormous inflation for the years ahead.
"A falling dollar is viewed as inflationary," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago. "The best inflationary hedge is typically to increase one's exposure to commodities."
Another positive thing for foreign investors is the weakening dollar allows them to buy the dollar-denominated commodities at bargain prices as their currencies strengthen against the U.S. dollar.
While the weather looks like it's cooperating with grains in the U.S., that won't matter for some, as while supply is increasing with wheat, for example, global demand is falling, which has caused wheat future prices to drop over the last couple of months, while being down by 33 percent from last year.
Along with gold, silver, oil and gas, many other precious metals also increased in value, including copper, aluminum and platinum. Heating oil also rose to $1.8713 a gallon.
Among the metals, copper continues to be a huge winner, as it has closed at a 10-month high, gaining 4.4 percent, much of that coming from increased demand from China, whose manufacturing sector has started to rebound a little, promising potentially even more demand.
Some are trying to twist this into some type of recovery, but in general, it's not huge demand driving these prices up, but the expected inflation coming from the weakening U.S. dollar; that, more than anything, will continue to spur foreign investment in commodities which is a bargain for them.
Weakening Dollar
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Jim Rogers | U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble
Jim Rogers agrees with Peter Schiff that buying or investing in long term or 30 year government Treasury bonds will be a disaster, and investors should watch them in order to short them when the government stops interceding and artificially propping them up by buying them.
Investement expert Jim Rogers gave a scathing rebuke to clueless Obama Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and his ideas in relationship to overhauling the bailout of the financial system in the U.S. Rogers in an interview on CNBC said Geithner, who was in charge of the NY Federal Reserve, was wrong for 15 years in a row, and continues to be wrong now. He adds that the Obama plan via Geithner will cause U.S. debt to surge even higher, and is creating an even worse scenario by the same people who didn't identify the crisis coming that we're in. Rogers concludes that Geithner has no idea what he's doing.
Consequently, similar to the insight concerning U.S. debt as Peter Schiff and the
Treasury bond market bubble bursting, Rogers said he has been shorting bonds, although he was ambushed by the Feds when they declared they were going to be buying Treasury bonds, causing Rogers to have to pay out when the Treasury bonds ended up going artificially higher. Just because the government is buying up bonds doesn't mean any of us should buy government bonds, and we shouldn't. Investing in U.S. Treasury bonds for the long term at this time is one of the poorest investment idea out there now.
Rogers added that he is still watching the long term Treasury bond market, and plans on shorting it again, as the amount of debt the U.S. is issuing and the huge amount of money being printed makes inflation almost a certainty. It will also push down the value of the U.S. dollar, making government bonds a risky financial instrument going forward. Another factor making the bond bubble being burst a reality is the low interest rate policy of central banks, which will deflate of cause the bubble to burst.
When the Federal Reserve announced they were going to buy up long term U.S. Treasury bonds, speculators zoomed into the market to buy them up, causing them to hold in value, when in fact they should have been dropping in value. That has added to the bubble being ready to burst, as who's going to be stupid enough to buy Treasury bonds when the government is holding them. They're going to overall get stuck with them, and then what will they do?
Jim Rogers has said in the past he's one of the worst market timers, and doesn't attempt to time the market, and in relationship to bonds said he doesn't know when he'll short long term Treasury bonds again, as it could be sometime this quarter or maybe not till next year.
Government bond prices and bond yields are worthless and meaningless at this time, especially with the 30 year Treasury bond. The only ones buying those bonds are the clueless or the speculators. Long term bonds are dead in the water, and we need to know that before thinking of putting our money down to buy government bonds.
Some people unbelievably think buying bonds is a safe bet at this time, and they'll learn the hard way that they aren't if they go that route. Forced liquidation has been one of the artificial props keeping bonds floating, as well as the U.S. dollar for a short time. That seems to be winding down now, and gold is looking to be the best safety hedge and protection against inflation like it usually is. Forced liquidation has kept gold from performing in its usual manner, but is now starting to act and move like it usually does in difficult economic times.
On a little bit of a different note for Jim Rogers, he started up the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index fund recently in order to take advantage of the enormous upside potential of China. The China fund measures the consumption of agricultural products by the Chinese, and floats or moves in conjunction with that. The growing middle class in China guarantees that once economic times start to recover, they'll be ready to resume their consumption habits which should make the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index a good place to put your money for those looking at the long term.
Commenting on Central- and Eastern-Europe, Rogers also said he's not going to put a dime into those areas, as the economic conditions are bad, and they're probably going to get worse before getting better. Currency rates in Eastern Europe especially have fallen since the beginning of 2009.
The key reason Jim Rogers asserts for buying commodities is the inevitable increase in inflation resulting from the misguided government bailout plans. Commodities will resume their bull run and become hot again and extend out longer than he expected because of the temporary lull in buying by consumers and governments.
Back to investing, or rather, not investing in government bonds - specifically the 30 year Treasury bond - Jim Rogers, as I said, is watching the bond market for opportunities to short it. He's also looking at equities in the U.S. the same way, as he's shorting a number of bellwhether companies like IBM, JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, among others. Anything connected to the U.S. dollar, which we should all be moving out of, is looked upon as week, and not something to put our investment money into. General Electric has plunged in value by 65 percent from last year at the same time. Most of the reasoning behind this is the horrid government economic bailout plan which will prolong and deepen the economic conditions.
Investement expert Jim Rogers gave a scathing rebuke to clueless Obama Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and his ideas in relationship to overhauling the bailout of the financial system in the U.S. Rogers in an interview on CNBC said Geithner, who was in charge of the NY Federal Reserve, was wrong for 15 years in a row, and continues to be wrong now. He adds that the Obama plan via Geithner will cause U.S. debt to surge even higher, and is creating an even worse scenario by the same people who didn't identify the crisis coming that we're in. Rogers concludes that Geithner has no idea what he's doing.
Consequently, similar to the insight concerning U.S. debt as Peter Schiff and the
Treasury bond market bubble bursting, Rogers said he has been shorting bonds, although he was ambushed by the Feds when they declared they were going to be buying Treasury bonds, causing Rogers to have to pay out when the Treasury bonds ended up going artificially higher. Just because the government is buying up bonds doesn't mean any of us should buy government bonds, and we shouldn't. Investing in U.S. Treasury bonds for the long term at this time is one of the poorest investment idea out there now.
Rogers added that he is still watching the long term Treasury bond market, and plans on shorting it again, as the amount of debt the U.S. is issuing and the huge amount of money being printed makes inflation almost a certainty. It will also push down the value of the U.S. dollar, making government bonds a risky financial instrument going forward. Another factor making the bond bubble being burst a reality is the low interest rate policy of central banks, which will deflate of cause the bubble to burst.
When the Federal Reserve announced they were going to buy up long term U.S. Treasury bonds, speculators zoomed into the market to buy them up, causing them to hold in value, when in fact they should have been dropping in value. That has added to the bubble being ready to burst, as who's going to be stupid enough to buy Treasury bonds when the government is holding them. They're going to overall get stuck with them, and then what will they do?
Jim Rogers has said in the past he's one of the worst market timers, and doesn't attempt to time the market, and in relationship to bonds said he doesn't know when he'll short long term Treasury bonds again, as it could be sometime this quarter or maybe not till next year.
Government bond prices and bond yields are worthless and meaningless at this time, especially with the 30 year Treasury bond. The only ones buying those bonds are the clueless or the speculators. Long term bonds are dead in the water, and we need to know that before thinking of putting our money down to buy government bonds.
Some people unbelievably think buying bonds is a safe bet at this time, and they'll learn the hard way that they aren't if they go that route. Forced liquidation has been one of the artificial props keeping bonds floating, as well as the U.S. dollar for a short time. That seems to be winding down now, and gold is looking to be the best safety hedge and protection against inflation like it usually is. Forced liquidation has kept gold from performing in its usual manner, but is now starting to act and move like it usually does in difficult economic times.
On a little bit of a different note for Jim Rogers, he started up the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index fund recently in order to take advantage of the enormous upside potential of China. The China fund measures the consumption of agricultural products by the Chinese, and floats or moves in conjunction with that. The growing middle class in China guarantees that once economic times start to recover, they'll be ready to resume their consumption habits which should make the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index a good place to put your money for those looking at the long term.
Commenting on Central- and Eastern-Europe, Rogers also said he's not going to put a dime into those areas, as the economic conditions are bad, and they're probably going to get worse before getting better. Currency rates in Eastern Europe especially have fallen since the beginning of 2009.
The key reason Jim Rogers asserts for buying commodities is the inevitable increase in inflation resulting from the misguided government bailout plans. Commodities will resume their bull run and become hot again and extend out longer than he expected because of the temporary lull in buying by consumers and governments.
Back to investing, or rather, not investing in government bonds - specifically the 30 year Treasury bond - Jim Rogers, as I said, is watching the bond market for opportunities to short it. He's also looking at equities in the U.S. the same way, as he's shorting a number of bellwhether companies like IBM, JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, among others. Anything connected to the U.S. dollar, which we should all be moving out of, is looked upon as week, and not something to put our investment money into. General Electric has plunged in value by 65 percent from last year at the same time. Most of the reasoning behind this is the horrid government economic bailout plan which will prolong and deepen the economic conditions.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Foreign Investment in Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds Falls in November - It's Only the Beginning
We've been talking a lot lately of the crisis with the U.S. dollar and how it's probably already starting to happen, even though there's been some temporary strength in the greenback.
A government report confirms it was the experience in November, as demand for long-term Treasury bonds from investors outside the U.S. fell, along with corporate and agency debt.
While many "experts" are saying it's the decline of risk aversion, I think that's totally wrong. That falsely assumed there was risk aversion involved in the first place for their to be a decline. There wasn't, as the Treasury report said.
What serious international investor, whether it's an individual, fund or country, doesn't know what's going to happen to the U.S. dollar going ahead? They know what all this misguided stimulus debt is going to do to the value of the dollar.
A government report confirms it was the experience in November, as demand for long-term Treasury bonds from investors outside the U.S. fell, along with corporate and agency debt.
While many "experts" are saying it's the decline of risk aversion, I think that's totally wrong. That falsely assumed there was risk aversion involved in the first place for their to be a decline. There wasn't, as the Treasury report said.
What serious international investor, whether it's an individual, fund or country, doesn't know what's going to happen to the U.S. dollar going ahead? They know what all this misguided stimulus debt is going to do to the value of the dollar.
Here it is for you in simple terms:
The government wants to spend money it doesn't have
They can't get foreigners to pay for that money
The Federal reserve announces it'll buy up U.S. Treasury bonds
Speculators swarm like sharks around a bleeding body
Speculators buy Treasurys knowing Fed will buy them back
Fed is holding Treasurys with no one to sell them to
Fed prints more money to pay for further debt
The U.S. dollar plummets in value and inflation rears its ugly head
This is what's ahead for the U.S. dollar and Americans. Why do you think foreign investors are no longer buying the U.S. dollar? They know what's going to happen to it, and haven't been viewing it as a place of safety as some have wrongly asserted.
Speculators have been buying up the dollar and keeping it where it's been because they then resell it to the government, which said it was buying it. Some analysts assumed it was people buying to hold the bonds, when in reality they were only buying to resell to make a quick profit.
That gave the illusion of a market for the dollar, when in fact it was something entirely different.
If you aren't sure about that, just ask yourself the question of why foreigners are cutting their investment in Treasurys. This is just the beginning of fleeing from the dollar, it's going to get much worse.
U.S. dollars are not the place to be at this time, investors need to be moving out of them.
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