Euro Rises Against Greenback on Interest Rate Differentials

The dollar fell broadly Thursday as traders opted for the safety of the Swiss franc and Japan's yen amid ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

Meanwhile, expectations for widening interest-rate differentials pushed the euro to a three-week high against the dollar.

The dollar sank to a record low against the franc of CHF0.9234 as violence increased in Libya and fears increased that unrest in the Middle East could spread to more oil-producing nations like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

"We continue to focus on the issues in the Middle East," said Aroop Chatterjee, chief foreign exchange quantitative strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "Even though we've seen a bit of stabilization in oil prices, in the currencies market, [investors] still favor safe havens."

The franc has become the most popular safe-haven option during times of geopolitical risk. It also rallied against the euro Thursday. The yen also was bid higher against the dollar and euro thanks to its perceived safety.

Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel early in the global day on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leading to the dollar's record weakness against the franc. But even as oil prices have backed off that lofty level, currency investors continued to favor safety.

The situation in the Middle East appears to be far from stabilizing, so the flight to safety is likely to continue, analysts said.





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U.S. Dollar: Falls Against Yen

Although the U.S. dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen in a month earlier on Thursday, later in the day it dropped slightly as investors wait for key jobs data which should confirm the U.S. labor market is under extreme stress.

FOREX trade had the dollar declining against the yen later on Thursday, in anticipation of the expected weak jobs report. It fell from its high to drop by 0.2 percent to 90.94 yen on FOREX trading.

I'm not sure why currency traders are looking to the stimulus plan as a measure of what the U.S. dollar is going to do, as it will make little difference. Socialism isn't going to strengthen the U.S. dollar whatever way you look at it.

As a matter of fact, it'll hasten the collapse of the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve will have to print out its fiat money in order to pay for the outrageous sum of debt. That will eventually result in inflation and the dollar plunging in value.

Even the goofy idea that changing an accounting rule would make investors be more adverse to risk is a ridiculous assertion. Playing with numbers won't change the dollar in any way, or the current recession.

The so-called accounting fix could keep banks from generally marking down all assets to prices a badly run nationalized bank could have to pay. Welcome to the new socialist United States.

Tinkering and playing with accounting rules changes nothing, and the value of the U.S. dollar or yen, or any other currency always relates to the underlying fundamentals and nothing else, even when things temporarily get mixed up like in the recent forced liquidation period which made the dollar seem to be strengthening, even though there was no reason it should have been.

Sources say that neither the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or Treasury Department were talking about suspending the fair value accounting rule.

Nations and investors will slowly back out of investing in the U.S. dollar through buying Treasuries, as exports no longer make sense when consumers aren't buying products any longer. The motivation is thus no longer there to buy up U.S. debt to finance consumers' purchases.

As far as currencies go, the yen should perform as a place of safety again, along with gold and silver. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken and collapse, leaving the usual havens of safety the place to go.

The euro also dropped slightly against the yen, while sterling made a slight gain.

Currency trading will be extremely important going forward, and the FOREX market a place to make a lot of money for those who understand what they're doing and that the U.S. dollar is set for a long term plunge in value, collapsing to low levels.

The yen should remain strong during the time the dollar falls.

Increased Investor Risk Appetite Pummels U.S. Dollar

Although the bailout for the auto industry seems to have given some investors an increasing risk appetite, and thus has weakened the U.S. dollar, it is far from a done deal, and Republicans are rightly threatening to vote the corporate welfare bill down.

The fickleness of investors and the market makes this the type of story that can change from day to day, and has.

Both the euro and British pound were up against the U.S. dollar today, with the euro rising 0.7 percent against the dollar to $1.3016, and the pound gaining 0.2 percent to $1.4788.

In the afternoon, the dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.5 percent to 85.48.

With the yen also being considered valuable to wary traders, it also suffered today, even falling against the U.S. dollar to 92.59, a drop of 0.3 percent. The dollar isn't far off a 13-year low against the yen; if it goes below 90.90 yen it'll reach that level.

There is considerable risk the dollar will plunge further if the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark fed funds rate next week from the current 1 percent. Many think it'll cut the rate to 0.5 percent at that time, putting downward pressure on the greenback.

U.S. Dollar and Yen Remain Strong ... Investments of Choice for Those Seeking Safety

Safety was the driving force for investors today, as the announcement by U.S. Treasurey Secretary Henry Paulson that the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) would add to its focus of infusing capital into banks, to also helping nonbank financial sector.

Jittery investors interpreted that as problems are emerging in the attempt to fix the financial crisis.

Immediately after Paulson's comments migrated across the news wires, traders ran to safety in the U.S. dollar and yen.

Even so, the dollar fell significantly against the yen, dropping to 94.61 yen from 97.60.

The British pound took a beating today, falling to its lowest levels since June 2002, dropping below $1.50. Against the euro it suffered its worst performance ever.

Much of that was generated from the comment by the Bank of England that the British economy was for all practicle purposes, probably already in a recession. British economists say there's no doubt there will be more substantial cuts in interest rates in the near future; most likely beginning in December.

The Bank of England confirmed this saying if interest rates stay at the current level of 3.0 percent, there's risk the country could enter into a deflationary period of time beginning in the latter part of 2009.

The European Central Bank has been pouring tons of dollars, Swiss francs and euros into banks in the eurozone in hopes it'll encourage them to lend to one another again. The ECB announced Wednesday it would offer $60.574 billion for a week at a fixed rate of 1.43 percent.

US Dollar Lowest Against Yen in 13 years

Although the U.S. dollar has been the beneficiary of the forced liquidation of commodity positions which are for the most part denominated in U.S. dollars, it hasn't been because underlying fundamentals have changed, as its drop against the yen has proven. Today the dollar fell to a 13-year low against the yen, dropping to 90.89.

It has rebounded some since then, but it does show that the yen is behaving like the fundamentals connected to it, while the dollar isn't because of the forced liquidation mentioned above.

Still, the remarkable factors in the market keep the dollar high against other nations' currencies, as it was up to two-year highs against the euro, while it enjoyed a six-year high against sterling.

Sterling fell to as low as $1.5270 against the U.S. dollar, while the euro was as low as $1.2498. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also plunged against the greenback, with the Australian dollar taking the biggest hit, falling by 7.6 percent to $0.6213, while the New Zealand dollar was right behind it, decreasing by 6.5 percent to $0.5576.