Terrible economic news last week had the euro end Friday up against the US dollar to its highest level in 6 weeks.
The US economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, the first monthly drop in six months, and combined with other bad economic news, has investors and consumers concerned over whether or not we're in a recovery at all, or the huge amount of money thrown at the economy only masked its inherent weaknesses.
The euro rose to $1.2553 in afternoon trading in New York from $1.2480 late Thursday. Right after the Labor Department said that 125,000 jobs were lost in June in the U.S., the euro topped off at $1.2613, its highest level since May 21.
While some have interpreted this as a nod toward avoiding the worst in Europe, it's highly doubtful that's the case, and there's a lot to play out there before we're through.
Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Collapsing US Dollar Driving Gold Prices
The continuing weakness and collapse of the U.S. dollar is driving gold prices as much as anything else, as in terms of the U.S. dollar, gold broke an all time record again, reaching $1,500 a troy ounce, as investors ignore the plunging jewelry demand from India and other nations and look toward safety and an inflation hedge.
To get a grasp of how weak the U.S dollar is, in other currencies gold is far from breaking records, as in being measured by the yen it's 15 percent below their all time record in gold, and the Australian dollar is even stronger, being 30 percent away from their all-time high for gold prices as measured by their currency. Even against sterling gold is 6 percent away from record past highs.
Again, gold is being moved by the increasing lack of faith in the U.S. dollar, along with complete uncertainty on the condition of the economy, as mixed signals and postive thinking reports from the government continue to hide the real condition of the global and U.S. economy, which is probably much worse than being reported.
The response to the U.S. dollar shows investors believe this completely.
To get a grasp of how weak the U.S dollar is, in other currencies gold is far from breaking records, as in being measured by the yen it's 15 percent below their all time record in gold, and the Australian dollar is even stronger, being 30 percent away from their all-time high for gold prices as measured by their currency. Even against sterling gold is 6 percent away from record past highs.
Again, gold is being moved by the increasing lack of faith in the U.S. dollar, along with complete uncertainty on the condition of the economy, as mixed signals and postive thinking reports from the government continue to hide the real condition of the global and U.S. economy, which is probably much worse than being reported.
The response to the U.S. dollar shows investors believe this completely.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
People Returning Solid Financial Planning
As the crisis has unfolded the folly of a debt-driven economy and personal finance lifestyle, people are returning to strategy of financial basics, and that's a really good thing.
When queried about their customers, financial planners say that their clients are getting back to saving more, using less credit, building up an emergency fund, understand how much risk they can be exposed to, and diversifying in safe investments.
Oh, and most importantly, they're now looking at long-term wealth building rather than wealth trappings created by the illusion that debt provides.
"Before the market chaos, there was a very low savings rate, inappropriate use of credit cards, too much risk in investments, excessive spending on residences," says Tom Warschauer, a finance professor. "Virtually every type of financial decision was being made in a kind of fairyland atmosphere, thinking 'This will lead me to be better off' when in fact that was never the case."
While some financial planners predict this may last for a decade, hopefully it will become the way of life for consumers around the world, who will have to go through it all over again if they never learn that excessive debt will inevitably always lead to these results.
When queried about their customers, financial planners say that their clients are getting back to saving more, using less credit, building up an emergency fund, understand how much risk they can be exposed to, and diversifying in safe investments.
Oh, and most importantly, they're now looking at long-term wealth building rather than wealth trappings created by the illusion that debt provides.
"Before the market chaos, there was a very low savings rate, inappropriate use of credit cards, too much risk in investments, excessive spending on residences," says Tom Warschauer, a finance professor. "Virtually every type of financial decision was being made in a kind of fairyland atmosphere, thinking 'This will lead me to be better off' when in fact that was never the case."
While some financial planners predict this may last for a decade, hopefully it will become the way of life for consumers around the world, who will have to go through it all over again if they never learn that excessive debt will inevitably always lead to these results.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar | Monetary Policy China
U.S. Dollar Monetary Policy
With the outrageous policies of Barack Hussein Obama who is pretending he can spend money at will and not suffer any consequences, this has rightfully caused American trading partners, especially the Chinese, to be concerned over the eventual collapse in value of the U.S. dollar, which could devastate China because of their continual and misguided buying up of Treasury debt.
It is assumed that China must do this to continue prospering, (and to a slight degree that may be true), but this has went way beyond that, and American consumers aren't spending, so China is extremely exposed to devastating harm if they don't do something about it.
As a result, the U.S. dollar should be the major focus of Chinese-U.S. talks starting in Washington today as China pushes the Obama administration on how it will manage the fiscal deficit and protect the U.S. currency’s value. Of course the answer is they can't, and any student of the markets and honest economist will acknowledge that.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will host two days of meetings talking on topics from the economic crisis to North Korea. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue is the first by the Obama administration with China.
The global recession has underscored the common interests of the economies, ranked first and third largest in the world, as Vice Premier Wang Qishan seeks to preserve the value of the world’s biggest Treasury holdings, while U.S. pushes China to rely more on domestic demand and not exports for growth.
Bizarrely, clueless Timothy Geither and equally clueless Hillary Clinton are pressing the Chinese on becoming even more socialist by providing more social safety in order to combat the wonderful habits of the Chinese for saving rather than spending. These wackos need to step down out of office for even bringing up such rot. They don't belong in a U.S. government position when they seek to export socialism to the Chinese. They're getting wackier and wackier by the moment.
China’s exchange-rate policy will be talked about. The U.S. wants a more flexible yuan, though Geithner has avoided a showdown on the issue, declining to repeat more ignorant comments he made in written communication to lawmakers after his Senate confirmation hearing in January that China was “manipulating” its currency.
Both nations are pumping cash into their economies to revive growth. Though Premier Wen Jiabao said in March he was worried about the safety of the nation’s U.S. assets, China bought $38 billion of U.S. notes and bonds in May, taking its holdings to $801.5 billion. The Chinese should never have done this, and they still be pay in the face of the horrid and inexperience displayed by the Obama administration.
The U.S. deficit could go as high as a record $1.85 trillion for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, almost four times the previous fiscal year’s $455 billion shortfall, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will brief Chinese officials about how the U.S. plans to keep inflation in check over the next few years, people advised of the plan said this month. In June, Geithner told China that the U.S. wants to shrink its budget gap as soon as an economic recovery takes hold.
Unfortunately, Ben Bernanke is as clueless about monetary policy as they come, and along with the Federal Reserve, is largely responsible for the continued and lengthening recession, which should have been allowed to work its way out without government interference.
The U.S. dollar will continue to suffer under these tortuous and horrible monetary policies until the Keynesian way of managment is completely abandoned and recognized as outrageously deficient and unable to work, as decades of failure have already proven.
U.S. Dollar Monetary Policy
With the outrageous policies of Barack Hussein Obama who is pretending he can spend money at will and not suffer any consequences, this has rightfully caused American trading partners, especially the Chinese, to be concerned over the eventual collapse in value of the U.S. dollar, which could devastate China because of their continual and misguided buying up of Treasury debt.
It is assumed that China must do this to continue prospering, (and to a slight degree that may be true), but this has went way beyond that, and American consumers aren't spending, so China is extremely exposed to devastating harm if they don't do something about it.
As a result, the U.S. dollar should be the major focus of Chinese-U.S. talks starting in Washington today as China pushes the Obama administration on how it will manage the fiscal deficit and protect the U.S. currency’s value. Of course the answer is they can't, and any student of the markets and honest economist will acknowledge that.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will host two days of meetings talking on topics from the economic crisis to North Korea. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue is the first by the Obama administration with China.
The global recession has underscored the common interests of the economies, ranked first and third largest in the world, as Vice Premier Wang Qishan seeks to preserve the value of the world’s biggest Treasury holdings, while U.S. pushes China to rely more on domestic demand and not exports for growth.
Bizarrely, clueless Timothy Geither and equally clueless Hillary Clinton are pressing the Chinese on becoming even more socialist by providing more social safety in order to combat the wonderful habits of the Chinese for saving rather than spending. These wackos need to step down out of office for even bringing up such rot. They don't belong in a U.S. government position when they seek to export socialism to the Chinese. They're getting wackier and wackier by the moment.
China’s exchange-rate policy will be talked about. The U.S. wants a more flexible yuan, though Geithner has avoided a showdown on the issue, declining to repeat more ignorant comments he made in written communication to lawmakers after his Senate confirmation hearing in January that China was “manipulating” its currency.
Both nations are pumping cash into their economies to revive growth. Though Premier Wen Jiabao said in March he was worried about the safety of the nation’s U.S. assets, China bought $38 billion of U.S. notes and bonds in May, taking its holdings to $801.5 billion. The Chinese should never have done this, and they still be pay in the face of the horrid and inexperience displayed by the Obama administration.
The U.S. deficit could go as high as a record $1.85 trillion for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, almost four times the previous fiscal year’s $455 billion shortfall, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will brief Chinese officials about how the U.S. plans to keep inflation in check over the next few years, people advised of the plan said this month. In June, Geithner told China that the U.S. wants to shrink its budget gap as soon as an economic recovery takes hold.
Unfortunately, Ben Bernanke is as clueless about monetary policy as they come, and along with the Federal Reserve, is largely responsible for the continued and lengthening recession, which should have been allowed to work its way out without government interference.
The U.S. dollar will continue to suffer under these tortuous and horrible monetary policies until the Keynesian way of managment is completely abandoned and recognized as outrageously deficient and unable to work, as decades of failure have already proven.
U.S. Dollar Monetary Policy
Thursday, February 5, 2009
U.S. Dollar: Falls Against Yen
Although the U.S. dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen in a month earlier on Thursday, later in the day it dropped slightly as investors wait for key jobs data which should confirm the U.S. labor market is under extreme stress.
FOREX trade had the dollar declining against the yen later on Thursday, in anticipation of the expected weak jobs report. It fell from its high to drop by 0.2 percent to 90.94 yen on FOREX trading.
I'm not sure why currency traders are looking to the stimulus plan as a measure of what the U.S. dollar is going to do, as it will make little difference. Socialism isn't going to strengthen the U.S. dollar whatever way you look at it.
As a matter of fact, it'll hasten the collapse of the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve will have to print out its fiat money in order to pay for the outrageous sum of debt. That will eventually result in inflation and the dollar plunging in value.
Even the goofy idea that changing an accounting rule would make investors be more adverse to risk is a ridiculous assertion. Playing with numbers won't change the dollar in any way, or the current recession.
The so-called accounting fix could keep banks from generally marking down all assets to prices a badly run nationalized bank could have to pay. Welcome to the new socialist United States.
Tinkering and playing with accounting rules changes nothing, and the value of the U.S. dollar or yen, or any other currency always relates to the underlying fundamentals and nothing else, even when things temporarily get mixed up like in the recent forced liquidation period which made the dollar seem to be strengthening, even though there was no reason it should have been.
Sources say that neither the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or Treasury Department were talking about suspending the fair value accounting rule.
Nations and investors will slowly back out of investing in the U.S. dollar through buying Treasuries, as exports no longer make sense when consumers aren't buying products any longer. The motivation is thus no longer there to buy up U.S. debt to finance consumers' purchases.
As far as currencies go, the yen should perform as a place of safety again, along with gold and silver. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken and collapse, leaving the usual havens of safety the place to go.
The euro also dropped slightly against the yen, while sterling made a slight gain.
Currency trading will be extremely important going forward, and the FOREX market a place to make a lot of money for those who understand what they're doing and that the U.S. dollar is set for a long term plunge in value, collapsing to low levels.
The yen should remain strong during the time the dollar falls.
FOREX trade had the dollar declining against the yen later on Thursday, in anticipation of the expected weak jobs report. It fell from its high to drop by 0.2 percent to 90.94 yen on FOREX trading.
I'm not sure why currency traders are looking to the stimulus plan as a measure of what the U.S. dollar is going to do, as it will make little difference. Socialism isn't going to strengthen the U.S. dollar whatever way you look at it.
As a matter of fact, it'll hasten the collapse of the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve will have to print out its fiat money in order to pay for the outrageous sum of debt. That will eventually result in inflation and the dollar plunging in value.
Even the goofy idea that changing an accounting rule would make investors be more adverse to risk is a ridiculous assertion. Playing with numbers won't change the dollar in any way, or the current recession.
The so-called accounting fix could keep banks from generally marking down all assets to prices a badly run nationalized bank could have to pay. Welcome to the new socialist United States.
Tinkering and playing with accounting rules changes nothing, and the value of the U.S. dollar or yen, or any other currency always relates to the underlying fundamentals and nothing else, even when things temporarily get mixed up like in the recent forced liquidation period which made the dollar seem to be strengthening, even though there was no reason it should have been.
Sources say that neither the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or Treasury Department were talking about suspending the fair value accounting rule.
Nations and investors will slowly back out of investing in the U.S. dollar through buying Treasuries, as exports no longer make sense when consumers aren't buying products any longer. The motivation is thus no longer there to buy up U.S. debt to finance consumers' purchases.
As far as currencies go, the yen should perform as a place of safety again, along with gold and silver. The U.S. dollar will continue to weaken and collapse, leaving the usual havens of safety the place to go.
The euro also dropped slightly against the yen, while sterling made a slight gain.
Currency trading will be extremely important going forward, and the FOREX market a place to make a lot of money for those who understand what they're doing and that the U.S. dollar is set for a long term plunge in value, collapsing to low levels.
The yen should remain strong during the time the dollar falls.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Will China's Currency Experiment be Final Nail in U.S. Dollar's Coffin?
In a bid to protect their export business, China is implementing an experimental program concerning their currency to see if it will work better than the failing U.S. dollar. If it's successful, the program, along with other pressures on the dollar, could spell the end of the greenback as we know it.
Shanghai Daily reports how the program will be implemented:
"China will allow the yuan to be used for settlement between Guangdong Province and the Yangtze River Delta, China's two economic powerhouses, and the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, according to the central bank.
"Meanwhile, exporters in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province in southwestern China will be allowed to use the yuan to settle trade payments with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
"Those moves are expected to facilitate overseas trade, as Chinese exporters might face losses if they continue to be paid in US dollars..."
With every move by the U.S. government and Federal Reserve the wrong one, and as they continually interfere with U.S economy through socialist expansion programs, the greenback has little chance of surviving as a viable currency.
Combine that with this move by China, and the conclusion is there will probably be a paradigm shift in the global currency market in the not-too-distant future, with the U.S. dollar simply another weak currency in the market, if it survives at all.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Peter Schiff on Coming Collapse of U.S. Dollar
In talking about the current global economic crisis, Peter Schiff says if you think things are bad now, wait until the misguided policies of Barack Obama are implemented, which will cause the U.S. dollar to crash.
Schiff says Obama hasn't a clue as to the cause of the problem, and so will continue on and exasperate it, by putting into effect the huge domestic spending program which focuses on public works.
Essentially, what Obama is doing is asking the world to finance his programs on behalf of the American worker and consumer.
As Schiff says, the government has no wealth, it can only take money from the private sector and redistribute it to those they choose.
How this weakens the U.S. dollar, is somebody has to pay for that money. With foreign governments experiencing getting burned from the reckless spending of American consumers, which was encouraged by lenders who thought the party would go on and on, they won't be willing to continue to finance the silly policies of the American goverment, or the undisciplined habits of its consumers.
The solution to that, from the government's perspective, will be to print more money, which will put enormous downward pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar, as well as produce significant inflationary trends.
This in turn will cause trading partners to quit exporting goods to the country, as they won't want to trade in U.S. dollars, which will increasingly weaken.
American consumers will also stop buying, as the dollar won't buy much anymore. In response, Obama could foolishly attempt to put price controls in place, which will create shortages, along with a thriving black market in goods. That would also create an alternative form of currency or currencies.
Schiff's advice is to get out of anything related to the U.S. dollar.
For one of the best video presentations on the origin of the fall of the global economy, watch Peter Schiff being interviewed below.
Schiff says Obama hasn't a clue as to the cause of the problem, and so will continue on and exasperate it, by putting into effect the huge domestic spending program which focuses on public works.
Essentially, what Obama is doing is asking the world to finance his programs on behalf of the American worker and consumer.
As Schiff says, the government has no wealth, it can only take money from the private sector and redistribute it to those they choose.
How this weakens the U.S. dollar, is somebody has to pay for that money. With foreign governments experiencing getting burned from the reckless spending of American consumers, which was encouraged by lenders who thought the party would go on and on, they won't be willing to continue to finance the silly policies of the American goverment, or the undisciplined habits of its consumers.
The solution to that, from the government's perspective, will be to print more money, which will put enormous downward pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar, as well as produce significant inflationary trends.
This in turn will cause trading partners to quit exporting goods to the country, as they won't want to trade in U.S. dollars, which will increasingly weaken.
American consumers will also stop buying, as the dollar won't buy much anymore. In response, Obama could foolishly attempt to put price controls in place, which will create shortages, along with a thriving black market in goods. That would also create an alternative form of currency or currencies.
Schiff's advice is to get out of anything related to the U.S. dollar.
For one of the best video presentations on the origin of the fall of the global economy, watch Peter Schiff being interviewed below.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Is the Party Over for U.S. Dollar? Probably!
Earlier this month I asked the question of when the artificial strength of the U.S. dollar was coming to an end. We may be seeing the initial move toward that happening, as it seems deleveraging, which propped the dollar up, may be winding down.
The only question for the dollar, has been how long the deleveraging would take to unwind, as the complexity of the funds involved made it impossible to know. It seems the majority of that has happened now, and the dollar is responding in a predictable manner.
With U.S. obligations now in the trillions of dollars, the absolute necessity of a strong U.S. dollar is crucial to the successful implementation of the misguided bailouts and simulus package, but that isn't going to happen any time soon.
Some were hoping the deleveraging would last longer, giving the dollar a longer period to remain strong, but that isn't going to be the case. Most analysts believe that not only is downward pressure coming short term, but it should last for some time as well.
Today the greenback dropped to a 13-year low against the yen, and fell to its largest one-day loss against the euro, as currencies responded to the slashing of the benchmark interest rates to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, which is the lowest among major economies in the world.
While there are those looking to what Japan did as a blueprint for the U.S., that's a huge mistake for a couple of reasons.
First, the Japanese economy hasn't come near to recovering from its performance when they instituted a similar strategy as set forth by president-elect Obama. He wants to build up the infrastructure of the nation to create jobs.
Just that alone is an unfortunate idea, as it in reality crushed the Japanese economy.
But that's not the only reason it's foolish and misguided. The second reason is the difference between Japanese and American investors.
In Japan, people were willing to invest in the bonds issued by the government because of the huge savings available, as well as the willingness of local investors to fund the debt. Americans can't do that, as they basically have no savings, which makes that a mute point.
So who will fund U.S. debt with the low interest rate and the government talking pursuing quantitative easing (buying Treasuries), that will put more downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
In the end, the government should have listened to the many voices saying they should let the market sort out the mess, as it's the best mechanism available to do that.
Now that they've decided to enter fully into the fray, they've done far more harm to the U.S. dollar, the economy, as well as the American people.
Essentially everything they've done has backfired and been impotent. It will continue to remain that way no matter how much money they throw at the problem. We're all going to suffer because of their inability to leave things alone and resist intervening.
We're going to be in for a significant bear market concerning the dollar for some time to come. It's only just beginning.
The only question for the dollar, has been how long the deleveraging would take to unwind, as the complexity of the funds involved made it impossible to know. It seems the majority of that has happened now, and the dollar is responding in a predictable manner.
With U.S. obligations now in the trillions of dollars, the absolute necessity of a strong U.S. dollar is crucial to the successful implementation of the misguided bailouts and simulus package, but that isn't going to happen any time soon.
Some were hoping the deleveraging would last longer, giving the dollar a longer period to remain strong, but that isn't going to be the case. Most analysts believe that not only is downward pressure coming short term, but it should last for some time as well.
Today the greenback dropped to a 13-year low against the yen, and fell to its largest one-day loss against the euro, as currencies responded to the slashing of the benchmark interest rates to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, which is the lowest among major economies in the world.
While there are those looking to what Japan did as a blueprint for the U.S., that's a huge mistake for a couple of reasons.
First, the Japanese economy hasn't come near to recovering from its performance when they instituted a similar strategy as set forth by president-elect Obama. He wants to build up the infrastructure of the nation to create jobs.
Just that alone is an unfortunate idea, as it in reality crushed the Japanese economy.
But that's not the only reason it's foolish and misguided. The second reason is the difference between Japanese and American investors.
In Japan, people were willing to invest in the bonds issued by the government because of the huge savings available, as well as the willingness of local investors to fund the debt. Americans can't do that, as they basically have no savings, which makes that a mute point.
So who will fund U.S. debt with the low interest rate and the government talking pursuing quantitative easing (buying Treasuries), that will put more downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
In the end, the government should have listened to the many voices saying they should let the market sort out the mess, as it's the best mechanism available to do that.
Now that they've decided to enter fully into the fray, they've done far more harm to the U.S. dollar, the economy, as well as the American people.
Essentially everything they've done has backfired and been impotent. It will continue to remain that way no matter how much money they throw at the problem. We're all going to suffer because of their inability to leave things alone and resist intervening.
We're going to be in for a significant bear market concerning the dollar for some time to come. It's only just beginning.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Is Artificial Strength of U.S. Dollar Coming to an End?
The unusual circumstances surrounding the underpinning of the U.S. dollar has many analysts unsure of how long that shifting foundation can last.
Forced liquidation or deleveraging has been the key reason the dollar has performed so well lately, and it's now questionable how much longer that process will remain a factor.
Once that slows down, the dollar will have tremendous downward pressure on it. Think of how that will sit with American businesses already facing major challenges from China and its currency.
Bob Sinche, head of global FX and rate strategy at The Bank of America in New York said, "Foundations for the dollar's recent rally have not been solid. The result of repatriation, deleveraging, quantitative easing and a major scarcity of dollars. But now we are bound for a correction."
It's not a matter of if, it's only a matter of when. And that seems to be coming on us pretty fast.
Another factor recently introduced is the steep and fast cuts coming from across the ocean in interest rates. That should also have some impact on weakening the dollar.
Most arguments aren't for some type of long-term wait for the downturn in the dollar. It could start any time, and could be at most, several months out. I haven't heard much about anything longer than that.
Some do think if it takes several months to happen, investors will be willing to take on more risk as economic conditions settle down - assuming they do - and other currencies may not be as attractive at that time.
One thing is for sure, the forced liquidation can't go on forever, and that will definitely undercut the strength of the dollar and put downward pressure on it.
Forced liquidation or deleveraging has been the key reason the dollar has performed so well lately, and it's now questionable how much longer that process will remain a factor.
Once that slows down, the dollar will have tremendous downward pressure on it. Think of how that will sit with American businesses already facing major challenges from China and its currency.
Bob Sinche, head of global FX and rate strategy at The Bank of America in New York said, "Foundations for the dollar's recent rally have not been solid. The result of repatriation, deleveraging, quantitative easing and a major scarcity of dollars. But now we are bound for a correction."
It's not a matter of if, it's only a matter of when. And that seems to be coming on us pretty fast.
Another factor recently introduced is the steep and fast cuts coming from across the ocean in interest rates. That should also have some impact on weakening the dollar.
Most arguments aren't for some type of long-term wait for the downturn in the dollar. It could start any time, and could be at most, several months out. I haven't heard much about anything longer than that.
Some do think if it takes several months to happen, investors will be willing to take on more risk as economic conditions settle down - assuming they do - and other currencies may not be as attractive at that time.
One thing is for sure, the forced liquidation can't go on forever, and that will definitely undercut the strength of the dollar and put downward pressure on it.
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