Thursday, October 23, 2008

How Long Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Rise?

... At least as long as it takes for investors to unwind their positions.

The major reason behind the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is the money investors borrowed over the last several years that is now being called in by lenders.

With the vast majority of that debt being dollar-denominated, it has forced investors to do whatever they can to find greenbacks to pay off those loans. That, of course, has pushed up the value of the dollar.

The majority of this is happening because of the positions held by institutional investors.

Even though this is all true, the tremendous upward movement of the dollar is due for a correction, and I would think it will have to happen sometime soon.

In reality, the dollar really isn't stronger than other currencies, as explained, but it is the currency used in most transactions that have to be unwound. Once that period of time is over, we'll see tremendous downward pressure on the dollar as inflationary pressures once again dominate the currency.

Still, the dollar is expected to continue rising, even though it will experience temporary breathers and drop over a few sessions during this time of unwinding.

No comments: