Will Weak Dollar Destroy Wal-Mart?

Peter Schiff made an interesting correlation between the weak U.S dollar, the Chinese and the future of Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

Schiff asserts that the days of Wal-Mart being able to buy up cheap products from the Chinese like they've done in the past are over, he even said Wal-Mart could become the next Saks Fifth Avenue, meaning their prices will only rise, taking away their unique competitive advantage.

Of course if that were to become a reality, Wal-Mart would struggle, so would their competitors who rely on Chinese products as well.

Wal-Mart could of course go to other countries providing cheaper prices like China currently does and take advantage of that, but it would take a lot of workers to make up the difference, seeming to imply they would have to enlist a number of countries to meet the low price demand behind the reason people shop Wal-Mart in the first place.

If Wal-Marts' competitors are better positioned than they are in getting their products from other countries, then this really could make things interesting, and bring the price differences between them and their competitors much closer.

Maybe this one of the reasons Wal-Mart has been working hard at attempting to bring in higher end clothing to the stores, other than attempting to reach people at higher income levels.

The U.S. Dollar is the New Peso Not the New Yen Says Peter Schiff

In a recent converversation about the collapse of the U.S. dollar, Peter Schiff stated that the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemna that they'll have to make a decisions about, neither one which looks like it'll end in a good way for the U.S. dollar.

The first one is to continue on with close to zero interest rates where inexpensive dollars are the endless supply for carry traders, or they could stop the carry trade in its tracks by raising interest rates, which would cause a deeper recession "than anything we’ve experienced so far.”

Schiff added that the use of the yen for carry trade is now over, and it should continue strengthening, as the Japanese consider it a good move for their domestic economy for it to strengthen rather than be weak with low interest rates connected to it any longer.

When asked about the future of the U.S. dollar and carry trade, Schiff responed in a CNBC interview, “I don’t know when [the dollar] is going to strengthen. The dollar isn’t the new yen, it’s unfortunately the new peso.

Either way, as far as making money on the carry trade, Schiff said that because the U.S. dollar will continue to collapse, those using it to invest in higher yielding currencies and assets should make a fortune for some time to come.

U.S. Dollar Index Plunges to Yearly Low

Dollar Collapse
The U.S. dollar index plunged to its lowest level, as well as against the Euro. The U.S. dollar index tracks a basket of six currencies against the U.S. dollar.

This will continue because of the misguided steps of the government and the Federal Reserve to print money and bailout the banking industry, AIG and the auto industry; money it really doesn't have, and which our children and grandchildren will pay for for decades.

In response, commodity prices rose as investors looked for higher returns, starting to believe they can add a little more risk to their portfolios, possibly wading in too early, as there really isn't much data to justify the assertion by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the recession is over.

Dollar Collapse

U.S. Dollar | US Dollar Way Overvalued Says Study by Peterson Institute for International Economics

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar is "seriously overvalued," mostly against the Chinese renminbi and some other Asian currencies, according to a new study published on Wednesday.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank, said the majority of the 29 currencies it studied need to appreciate against the dollar, with a large rise especially needed by the Chinese currency.

"The principal counterpart to the overvalued dollar is the undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi, which would have needed to appreciate about 21 percent on a weighted average basis and about 40 percent against the dollar to achieve equilibrium," said the study by economists William Cline and John Williamson.

Investor flight to the dollar safe haven since last year has pushed the U.S. currency up by about 10 percent, which on top of an estimated overvaluation of about 7 percent a year ago made for an overvaluation of about 17 percent by March this year, the study said.

But the dollar slid to its low in 2009 on June 1 against the euro and a basket of currencies amid optimism the prospect of a global economic recovery boosted riskier assets.

Despite the dollar's recent slump, the study said the currency remained "substantially overvalued."

Cline and Williamson said economic imbalances caused by the deficit and overvaluation of the dollar over the surplus and undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi posed systemic threats.

"It is important that as the world emerges from the current crisis these imbalances be corrected," they said.

To rebalance the global economy, Cline and Williamson argued China should change its peg from the dollar to a basket of currencies. Alternatively, China should resume the upward crawl of the peg against the dollar.

"Unfortunately, the most recent evidence points in the other direction, as the policy over the past several months of keeping the renminbi unchanged against the dollar has remained intact, despite the dollar's reversal toward a declining trend subsequent to its peak in early March."

"China has again begun to ride the dollar down," they added.

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Jim Rogers "America is out of control" demise of the dollar