Thursday, September 24, 2009

Julian Robertson: Betting on Inflation

One of the greatest hedge fund managers that has ever lived - Julian Robertson, said in a recent interview on CNBC that he was just about betting everything on the inevitable inflation, which will decimate the U.S. dollar.

He stated one of the key problems with the U.S. financial policy, and that is that it has led to complete dependence on China and Japan buying our debt if we are to economically survive, or at minimum, we'll face "severe economic problems."

"It's almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don't buy our debt,” Robertson said in the interview.

Concerning inflation, Robertson stated, “If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent. It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.”

Roberston added that while the Chinese probably won't stop buying US bonds, it's quite possible the Japanese will, and sell their long-term bonds, which he said would be worse than someone not buying at all.

"The U.S. has to quit spending, cut back, start saving, and scale backward Robertson said. "Until that happens, I don't think we're anywhere near out of the woods.”

While Robertson said he thinks the recession is in a temporary lull, because so many of the financial problems haven't been dealt with, and the Federal Reserve hasn't stopped printing money, that could readily change.

He said it's impossible to pay back what we've borrowed, and the only change of that remotely happening is if the Chinese and Japanese continue to buy bonds from the U.S.

As a result, Robertson is betting a lot of his fortune on the fact that inflation will eventually come and soar, something all of us at minimum need to be financially defensive about.

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