Thursday, February 12, 2009

Jim Rogers | U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble

Jim Rogers agrees with Peter Schiff that buying or investing in long term or 30 year government Treasury bonds will be a disaster, and investors should watch them in order to short them when the government stops interceding and artificially propping them up by buying them.

Investement expert Jim Rogers gave a scathing rebuke to clueless Obama Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and his ideas in relationship to overhauling the bailout of the financial system in the U.S. Rogers in an interview on CNBC said Geithner, who was in charge of the NY Federal Reserve, was wrong for 15 years in a row, and continues to be wrong now. He adds that the Obama plan via Geithner will cause U.S. debt to surge even higher, and is creating an even worse scenario by the same people who didn't identify the crisis coming that we're in. Rogers concludes that Geithner has no idea what he's doing.

Consequently, similar to the insight concerning U.S. debt as Peter Schiff and the
Treasury bond market bubble bursting
, Rogers said he has been shorting bonds, although he was ambushed by the Feds when they declared they were going to be buying Treasury bonds, causing Rogers to have to pay out when the Treasury bonds ended up going artificially higher. Just because the government is buying up bonds doesn't mean any of us should buy government bonds, and we shouldn't. Investing in U.S. Treasury bonds for the long term at this time is one of the poorest investment idea out there now.

Rogers added that he is still watching the long term Treasury bond market, and plans on shorting it again, as the amount of debt the U.S. is issuing and the huge amount of money being printed makes inflation almost a certainty. It will also push down the value of the U.S. dollar, making government bonds a risky financial instrument going forward. Another factor making the bond bubble being burst a reality is the low interest rate policy of central banks, which will deflate of cause the bubble to burst.

When the Federal Reserve announced they were going to buy up long term U.S. Treasury bonds, speculators zoomed into the market to buy them up, causing them to hold in value, when in fact they should have been dropping in value. That has added to the bubble being ready to burst, as who's going to be stupid enough to buy Treasury bonds when the government is holding them. They're going to overall get stuck with them, and then what will they do?

Jim Rogers has said in the past he's one of the worst market timers, and doesn't attempt to time the market, and in relationship to bonds said he doesn't know when he'll short long term Treasury bonds again, as it could be sometime this quarter or maybe not till next year.

Government bond prices and bond yields are worthless and meaningless at this time, especially with the 30 year Treasury bond. The only ones buying those bonds are the clueless or the speculators. Long term bonds are dead in the water, and we need to know that before thinking of putting our money down to buy government bonds.

Some people unbelievably think buying bonds is a safe bet at this time, and they'll learn the hard way that they aren't if they go that route. Forced liquidation has been one of the artificial props keeping bonds floating, as well as the U.S. dollar for a short time. That seems to be winding down now, and gold is looking to be the best safety hedge and protection against inflation like it usually is. Forced liquidation has kept gold from performing in its usual manner, but is now starting to act and move like it usually does in difficult economic times.

On a little bit of a different note for Jim Rogers, he started up the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index fund recently in order to take advantage of the enormous upside potential of China. The China fund measures the consumption of agricultural products by the Chinese, and floats or moves in conjunction with that. The growing middle class in China guarantees that once economic times start to recover, they'll be ready to resume their consumption habits which should make the Macquarie and Rogers China Agriculture Index a good place to put your money for those looking at the long term.

Commenting on Central- and Eastern-Europe, Rogers also said he's not going to put a dime into those areas, as the economic conditions are bad, and they're probably going to get worse before getting better. Currency rates in Eastern Europe especially have fallen since the beginning of 2009.

The key reason Jim Rogers asserts for buying commodities is the inevitable increase in inflation resulting from the misguided government bailout plans. Commodities will resume their bull run and become hot again and extend out longer than he expected because of the temporary lull in buying by consumers and governments.

Back to investing, or rather, not investing in government bonds - specifically the 30 year Treasury bond - Jim Rogers, as I said, is watching the bond market for opportunities to short it. He's also looking at equities in the U.S. the same way, as he's shorting a number of bellwhether companies like IBM, JP Morgan Chase and General Electric, among others. Anything connected to the U.S. dollar, which we should all be moving out of, is looked upon as week, and not something to put our investment money into. General Electric has plunged in value by 65 percent from last year at the same time. Most of the reasoning behind this is the horrid government economic bailout plan which will prolong and deepen the economic conditions.

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