Thursday, July 12, 2012

Time to Buy Australian Dollar?

It may be a very good time to invest in the Australian dollar, as it's coming off a recent low and has rebounded in a way that looks very sustainable.

The last time the Aussie dollar came off a low in the latter part of 2008, it almost doubled in value.

Another reason to invest in the Australian dollar at this time is it's out of favor at this time, which means it hasn't participated in a huge run up as happens once traders take notice of a currency moving up in value. At that time all you're doing is chasing the price. Better to get in before the crowd discovers it.

Added together, the price of the Aussie dollar is inexpensive, starting to sustainably trend upwards, and is still out of favor with traders and investors.

Since the currency is still hated, and the upwards trend solidly in place, it's the perfect time to get into the currency.

As for the Aussie dollar itself, it pays out 3.7 percent interest at this time, the leader among of all the major currencies.

One of the best ways to play the Australian dollar is via the CurrencyShares Australia Dollar Trust (FXA). It pays out a monthly dividend valued at 3.7 percent.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Dollar Rallies on Nothing

The US Dollar Index jumped 30 points right after the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, based upon nothing but the confirmation of what had already been communicated by the FOMC after its latest meeting.

Apparently the market was looking for something that was said in the meeting regarding the implementing of more stimulus measures, even though it has already been stated that in the near term it's not likely to happen, although the Federal Reserve stands ready if the economy continues to weaken.

That also suggests investors believe the economy is approaching that point, and are looking for some clue as to when quantitative easing will resume.

There is no doubt there will be a QE3, it's just a matter of when, not if. But leery investors are wanting a more definitive statement and time frame than is currently being offered by the FOMC.

At the meeting the Federal Reserve announced interesting rates would remain at 0.25 percent into 2014, and that Operation Twist would be extended. Investors were hoping for more, but didn't get it, and apparently were hoping to find clues in the minutes that would suggest more is in the wings.

But I'm not sure what more can be said than it stands ready to do what it needs if the economy doesn't recover.

It appears investors and the Fed have two different views as to the health of the economy, with some investors thinking it's past time for more intervention, even though it has done nothing to help in the past.

More than likely the consequence of all of this will be for investors to remain skittish and on the sidelines until hints toward further stimulus are offered, or until true economic growth returns.

That's good news - at least temporarily - for the strength of the U.S. dollar.